Our team of experts has identified three key areas—Democratization, Decolonization, and Demographic Challenges—that have shaped the post-Soviet experience, particularly for Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. These issues lie at the heart of many current crises and points of escalation in the region. They bridge national concerns with broader, transnational dynamics, and our eyewitnesses each represent one of these critical categories.
Democratizaton
In the early 1990s, the fight for democratization became a central aspiration for civil society activists and ordinary citizens alike. In Belarus, this movement was quickly surpressed after a brief “window of freedom” following the 1994 elections, forcing activists to either flee the country or retreat into niche roles. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Georgia, and Armenia gradually embraced democratization, especially during pivotal moments such as the Maidan, Rose, and Velvet Revolutions. Today, however, these nations face significant setbacks in their democratic progress, primarily due to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, its interference in domestic affairs, and the rise of anti-democratic trends from within.
Decolonization
Decolonization is at the heart of many of today’s crises and ongoing processes in these countries. The colonial sense of entitlement remains a core driver of Russia’s war against Ukraine. At the same time, nationalist movements dating back to the 1970s have been the nucleus of civic engagement, leading to national independence and democratization. This tendency is a common thread across most post-Soviet states, where the movement toward democratization has often gone hand in hand with the creation of independent nation-states. The struggle for sovereignty and national identity is most evident in Armenia and Georgia, where their historical relationship with the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union continues to shape their modern challenges. While these nations have made significant strides toward political independence, their post-Soviet trajectory is still marked by a persistent battle for cultural and political autonomy. For many, this challenge involves not only rejecting the remnants of Soviet control but also reasserting their cultural, historical, and linguistic identity in the face of both external and internal pressures. The path to true independence, free from imperial influence, remains fraught with obstacles, particularly given Russia’s enduring dominance in the region.
Demographic challenges
Demographic challenges have also been a significant factor for these countries, shaping both their internal dynamics and their relationships with the outside world. Many post-Soviet nations face declining populations due to low birth rates, high emigration, and the lingering impacts of economic instability and poverty. This trend is especially pronounced in Ukraine, where the ongoing war has caused massive displacement, leaving the country with a reduced workforce and a fractured sense of national unity. In Armenia and Belarus, similar issues persist, with large numbers of citizens seeking better opportunities abroad, particularly after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia. Demographic challenges intersect with political, economic, and social crises, leaving significant portions of the population in poverty. For many, the 1990s represent a period of trauma, especially in the Caucasus region, where people endured years of hunger and a lack of basic resources like heating. As a result, these challenges continue to drive civic and social engagement, with activists striving to find solutions and create better futures for the most vulnerable populations.
Transformative Changes in Belarus
Like all post-Soviet countries, Belarus has gone through a path of difficult and large-scale transformation since 1991. But Belarus walked a unique path in recent history, including changes in political regimes and the system of public administration. Several key themes can be identified that determined the country’s development during this period: independence, political systems and national culture.
The most important characteristic of the era for Belarus is the country’s sovereignty and constructing the institutions of an independent state. It should be remembered that in the days of the BSSR (the “Belarusian Socialist Soviet Republic”), Belarus’ sovereignty was limited when it came to solving certain economic issues. The creation of a new state required mobilizing organizational and intellectual resources. It was necessary to introduce its own currency and armed forces. In one form or another, the creation of the institutions of a sovereign state continued despite the sometimes dramatic changes in the country’s political system.
After the collapse of the USSR, Belarus entered a new era as a parliamentary republic. A four-year phase of democratization of the country began, the so-called “window of democracy.” Legislative power was vested in the Supreme Council, whose chairman was the social democratic politician Stanislau Shushkevich. Executive power, including control over the security agencies, was in the hands of the Council of Ministers, headed by Viachaslau Kebich, who in part personified the power of the former communist nomenklatura. In 1994, a constitution was adopted that transformed Belarus into a parliamentary-presidential republic. These changes were lobbied by supporters of Kebich, whom they saw as the future president. But the presidential elections were overwhelmingly won by Aliaksandr Lukashenka, who led his campaign with slogans of integration with Russia and fighting corruption. In 1995, he initiated a referendum resulting in the establishment of Russian as a state language on par with Belarusian, and both the coat of arms and flag of the Soviet era were restored.
By 1996, the conflict between the president and parliament intensified and the country entered a political crisis. At the initiative of the president, a second referendum was held which granted the president enormous powers. Legally, Belarus became a presidential republic. But these constitutional changes were accompanied by restrictions on the freedom of the press and political rights. This resulted in the de facto establishment of an authoritarian, personalistic system of power in Belarus. The apogee of these processes were the events of 2020, when public discontent with the presidential election process was brutally suppressed by security forces.
But one should not think that life in Belarus all these years consisted only of political upheaval. This period was marked by the rise of Belarusian culture in the 1990s and censorship restrictions in the following years. Decolonization in Belarus did not take place in the full sense of the word, as Russian cultural influence remains extremely strong.
Another problem in Belarus’ thirty years of independence has been demographic. In 1991, the population was 10.19 million people. As of January 1, 2024, 9.155 million lived in Belarus, a reduction of nearly 10%. That said, it should be noted that all post-Soviet countries in the region suffered significant demographic loss.
Transformative Changes in Georgia: A 30-Year Perspective Through the Three “Ds”
Democracy: Navigating the Path of Political Change
The past three decades have been transformative for Georgia, particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Following independence, Georgia faced challenges in establishing a stable democratic framework as the nation grappled with civil unrest, political instability, and the emergence of separatist conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Despite these obstacles, milestones such as the establishment of the 1995 constitution laid the groundwork for democratic governance.
The 2003 Rose Revolution of 2003 was a crucial turning point in Georgia’s political landscape, highlighting the populace’s desire for democratic reforms and transparency. This peaceful uprising resulted in the ousting of President Eduard Shevardnadze and ushered in a new era of progressive leadership under Mikheil Saakashvili. His government prioritized anti-corruption measures, economic reforms, and closer ties with Western institutions. However, challenges remained, including entrenched political patronage and societal disparities that sparked discontent among various demographics. The commitment to democratic principles continues to shape Georgia’s political discourse as it aspires for greater integration with European and transatlantic structures.
Decolonization: Reclaiming National Identity
The journey of decolonization in Georgia has been intricately linked with the resurgence of national identity and the reclamation of cultural narratives suppressed during the Soviet era. Following independence, Georgia undertook efforts to distance itself from Soviet influence, promoting the Georgian language, traditions, and historical heritage.
In the 1990s, this process faced both revival and resistance. The struggle for identity was observable through the revitalization of Georgian culture and the arts, the establishment of national symbols, and an emphasis on the contributions of Georgia to world history. However, geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia, complicated these efforts. The 2008 war with Russia over South Ossetia further intensified Georgia’s resolve to assert its independence and sovereignty, underscoring the ongoing struggle against neocolonial influences.
Demographics: Shifts and Transformations
Demographically, Georgia has undergone significant changes over the past 30 years, influenced by migration patterns, societal shifts, and economic developments. The early 1990s were characterized by large-scale emigration due to economic instability and political uncertainty. Many Georgians, particularly highly skilled professionals, left the country in search of better opportunities abroad, contributing to a “brain drain” that impacted the nation’s development.
In recent years, however, there has been a notable trend of returning emigrants, driven by improvements in living conditions, rising economic prospects, and a renewed sense of national pride. Additionally, the demographic landscape has been reshaped by internal migration from rural to urban areas as younger generations seek educational and employment opportunities in cities.
Demographic changes in Georgia have also led to a more diverse social fabric, showcasing the coexistence of various ethnic and cultural groups. This diversity enriches national identity, fostering a society that, while aware of its historical complexities, is determined to build a cohesive and democratic future.
Conclusion
The past three decades in Georgia have been marked by profound changes sparked by the interconnected processes of democratization, decolonization, and demographic transformation. As Georgia continues to navigate its path toward stable democracy while embracing its unique cultural identity, the resilience and aspirations of its people remain pivotal in shaping the nation’s future in a rapidly evolving global landscape.